Thread:Fedora Kid/@comment-27379466-20150710230328/@comment-1734566-20150715211756

So, let's go ahead and recap the new possible statuses of all the cast members of Cambodia, based on the tribe divisions as well as previously-established alliances and season affiliations and whatnot:

Bayon Tribe: Andrew, Jeremy, Joe, Keith, Stephen, Ciera, Kass, Kimmi, Monica, and Tasha

Ta Keo Tribe: Jeff, Spencer, Terry, Vytas, Woo, Abi, Kelly, Kelley, PG, and Shirin

The 4 Cagayan people: The two men, Woo and Spencer, are on Ta Keo, while the two women, Kass and Tasha, are on Bayon.

The 3 Season 29 people: Jeremy and Keith, who have a conflict, are on Bayon, while the one woman, Kelley Wentworth, is on Ta Keo.

The 2 Worlds Apart people: Joe and Shirin are on opposite tribes (Joe on Bayon and Shirin on Ta Keo).

The 2 BvW people: Ciera and Vytas are on opposite tribes (Ciera on Bayon and Vytas on Ta Keo).

The 2 Australia people: Varner and Kimmi, who also have a conflict, are on opposite tribes (Kimmi on Bayon and Varner on Ta Keo).

Alliance-wise: The two major known alliances are Ciera and Spencer's alliance, consisting of themselves, Tasha, Monica, and Vytas; the other is Shane Powers's alliance, which is confirmed to have Andrew and Terry, plus one other person. All three women in the Ciera/Spencer alliance are on Bayon, while Spencer and Vytas are on Ta Keo. Meanwhile, Andrew is on Bayon while Terry is on Ta Keo. The four individuals who have been most-speculated to be the third person in Shane's alliance are: Jeremy, Varner, Vytas, and Shirin. If it's Jeremy, then he's on Bayon with Andrew - if it's any of those other three, they're on a tribe with Terry.

Bayon overall: The women of Ciera's alliance may easily form an alliance with Kass, due to the possible pre-existing Cagayan bond between Tasha and Kass, plus the extreme desperation that Kass has to survive as confirmed by Shane Powers. I can possibly see the men of that tribe forming an alliance (led by either Andrew or Jeremy), but Keith may be wary of his past conflict with Jeremy and therefore flip to the women's side, in exchange for taking out Jeremy - an enemy of Keith and a physical and strategic threat to the women. A strong, 60% or higher, chance that the women will ultimately dominate this tribe, under the leadership of either Monica or Ciera.

Ta Keo overall: This tribe sees two members (the lesser amount) of a larger alliance, Spencer and Vytas, and also has a 3/4 chance of there being two of the three people in Shane's alliance (Terry and either Varner/Vytas/Shirin); if it's Vytas, then Vytas himself could easily be in a good position to have a solid role in two separate alliances, which could either be good or bad. However, this tribe has a significantly larger presence of dumber players that can easily be manipulated into an alliance by one smart person - Shirin, Kelly Wiglesworth, Abi-Maria, and Woo. Again, as per the previous speculation, there's the possibility that Kelley Wentworth will be the one to rise up and form a women's alliance of dumber women, consisting of the aforementioned three and may also include PG and Woo, to likely target Spencer first as a major threat, which could cripple that alliance. But otherwise, if there is no formation of a dumb women's alliance until later in the game (post-merge or so), then this tribe's entire dynamic could be one giant clusterf*** that will be completely unpredictable throughout the entire pre-merge half.

And to me, this leaves only two major contestants who are truly gonna be wild cards, strategically, physically, and socially: Stephen and PG, both on opposite tribes (Stephen on Bayon and PG on Ta Keo). I can easily see PG joining the supposed all womens' alliance, although she is significantly smarter than most of the women on this tribe, and thus possibly presenting a threat to Kelley Wentworth or whoever rises to take charge of this tribe, if not PG herself. Stephen, on the other hand, doesn't seem to be in a good position unless he were to join forces with the women's alliance there - which is not too likely, since unlike Keith, he doesn't have a good reason for doing so OTHER than simply not being taken out early as a bigger threat, like Joe, Jeremy, or Andrew.

FINAL, overall predictions: In the pre-merge half, the three women of Bayon - Ciera, Monica, and Tasha - should do very well on their tribe and could, at the very least, hold onto their trio until the merge comes along, while their two male allies on the other tribe, Spencer and Vytas, will be lucky to make it that far. As such, the three women will have a much bigger challenge ahead of them if they make it to the merge. Meanwhile, Joe, Andrew, and Jeremy are probably the biggest targets/candidates for early boots from this tribe as a result. Ta Keo: Again, this tribe is a total clusterf*** that's nearly impossible to predict, other than that Spencer is still easily the biggest target/candidate for an early boot from this tribe, with Terry right behind him. Jeff seems like less of a threat (especially if the women do come together to form that alliance), while Woo is easily manipulated and Vytas may or may not be expendable. The two women to watch on this tribe are Kelley Wentworth and PG for sure.

So overall: I think this season is a VERY likely candidate to be another women-dominated season, but unlike One World or Season 29, will actually be enjoyable and feature multiple stronger women (Ciera, Monica, Tasha, Kelley, and PG), and also may or may not feature a few men as wild cards who, although they may simply be dragged along as pawns of the women, can still be interesting in their own right, such as Keith and Vytas.