Thread:Fedora Kid/@comment-2091662-20150416053546/@comment-25214396-20150418004845

Denise has to take the crown, she was strategizing everywhere, survived every TC setting up herself of the right spot and keeping her ass out of the line and knew that Malcolm was the bigger threat that she couldn't trust (she got suspicious after the L.W and Skoopin reward with Malcolm).

RATALIE W. RANTALYSIS

Natalie White's strategy was simple, but effective: Cement herself to an endgame player (Russell) that she knew she could beat.

Early on, it became apparent that 1) Russell was in control of the Foa Foa alliance and therefore aligning with him would make her one of the last players standing on Foa Foa and 2) Russell was confrontational, abrasive, and arrogant, and would be easy to beat in a FTC situation.

Understanding Russell's psychology was key to Natalie establishing as strong a connection as she did. She learned early on that he quickly became aggressive toward anyone that appeared to be threatening. Natalie responded by not only acting low-key, but by literally telling Russell that she was weak, that she was in his pocket, and that she was a non-threat. She made him even more loyal to her by constantly stroking his ego and telling him what a great player he was and how no one would beat him in the end. Eventually, their bond became so close that Russell never even considered voting Natalie out, and she, more than any of Russell's other alliance partners, was guaranteed a spot in Russell's F3 endgame.

Aligning with Russell wasn't without its risks, though - Russell made some strong moves and established a strong influence over his tribemates but also made some dumb moves, including a few questionable eliminations, his attempts at camp sabotage, and his frequent impulse to reveal his possession of the HII.

Perhaps Natalie should have considered eliminating Russell early in the game. Russell's highly entertaining but completely boneheaded attempts to "cause chaos" and shoot tribe morale in the hopes that he, the pathological control-freak that he is, could take "compleet-controwl," almost definitely contributed to Foa Foa's early challenge struggles. At the same time, Russell was unambiguously an asset in challenges compared to the other Foa Foa men. If the edit was accurate and Russell's attempts to "cause chaos" were mostly limited to the beginning of the game, keeping him was on base a smart idea; if it wasn't, and he extensively engaged in that kind of behavior the entire game, and in the process was heavily responsible for Galu's domination, Natalie should have tried to remove him.

Galu's dominance is probably attributable to several factors: 1) Foa Foa's lack of leadership, 2) Foa Foa's low morale, especially stemming from Ben, and 3) The extreme disparity in challenge skill between the two tribes.

The latter was, I believe, by far the most important factor behind Foa Foa's suckage. The Galu men were, as group, considerably stronger than Foa Foa's group, which consisted of a troll, a skinny, feckless doctor, a big oxford-educated pussy, a skinny cheating racist, and a fat piece of shit that was eventually medivaced.

The Foa Foa women weren't awful, but were up against superior challenge performers Yasmin, Laura, and the original Purple (INV) Kelly.

So whether Russell should have been kept around or not, Natalie was basically screwed before the game even started, and a fortuitous sequence of events/Russell's skill/the lack of unity that is often a problem for very large pagonging tribes (Rotu, Timbira, etc. ) more than made up for her severe bad luck as far as her initial tribe placement was concerned.

The second crucial piece of Natalie's game was the goodwill that she cultivated in her tribemates. Hardworking and tactful, Natalie was well-liked by everyone around Foa Foa, even tribemates she didn't have an alliance with. Natalie bonded with others easily, and her tribemates frequently expressed their trust in her.

Post-merge, she continued her strong social game, bonding with Galu members. Natalie intuitively knew that it was important to make inroads with de facto Galu leader and fellow "prayer warrior" (fuck that phrase!) Laura, bonding with her and the other members of the Galu core, and pushing for Erik's boot. This may have helped ensure Erik's exit, which was absolutely crucial to Foa Foa's endgame; though, to be fair, he may have left regardless of Natalie's efforts.

The Erik boot opened the window for Russell's acquisition of Shambo and HII shenanigans to deliver a Foa Foa endgame.

It's interesting to consider whether or not voting off Jaison instead of Mick at F5 was the smartest move for Natalie. Mick was winning against Natalie and Russell at least a plurality of the time, whereas Natalie was probably the favorite in a Natalie-Jaison-Russell matchup. However, Mick was clearly the better IC competitor, and if Brett was allowed to sneak into the FTC, the Galu-loaded jury allows him to rape anyone he's up against.

It's stupid to be results-oriented and say that Russell was going to beat Brett at the figurine challenge anyways, because Natalie didn't have that information at the time she was making her decision, but I still think taking out Mick was the smarter move because I think the field wins more often than not against Brett in a random challenge in either situation. However, I could be wrong, and Natalie's win probability actually goes down if she eliminates Mick... or it may be a wash. Either way, it's tough for Natalie to tell and we can't fault her for the Jaison eject that much, and who knows if Russell could even be influenced to vote out Mick anyways (such is the downside of UTR play).

Going into FTC, Russell had no chance, but Mick had a plurality of jurors leaning towards voting for him (but not locked), and if things had gone a little differently, Mick easily could have won.

Natalie gave a strong jury speech, sticking up for herself and her strategy while simultaneously managing to appear humble and/or not as conceited as Mick; meanwhile, Mick amanda'd hardcore, and Erik gave an impassioned speech on Natalie's behalf. Natalie took all of the contested votes away from Mick, winning Survivor: Samoa 7-2-0.

Overall, people tend to greatly underrate players like Natalie, because her strategy wasn't all that complex and didn't include any flashy moves or establish puppetmaster-like control. But none of those things are necessary for good gameplay, and being guaranteed F3 with a good shot to win is a veritable achievement that deserves due credit.



Too long, didn't read: Natalie was guaranteed F3 with at least one person she could beat (but not necessarily two), which is a solid achievement for any player. The downside to her endgame is that, though her social game was strong, Mick actually had a great chance of winning coming into FTC, that was ruined by his poor performance.