Thread:BarBar/@comment-1734566-20151016203750

Something else of note: The idea is that this season's post-merge dynamic is gonna be CRAAAAAZY chaotic...but what exactly will happen as a result? I mean, let's look at the possibilities, and how royally screwed up they all are:

Shane's Alliance: Confirmed by Redmond Martin to have consisted of Shane himself, Terry, Varner, and Kelly Wigles. Shane, of course, didn't make it in; Varner's gone; Terry's confirmed to quit...so that leaves just Kelly Wigles. I'm still pretty confused as to WHY they didn't stick together in the Premiere, ESPECIALLY considering the astronomical levels of luck that all three of them started off on the same tribe? But nevertheless, it's pretty safe to say that this isn't a factor anymore.

Ta Keo Alliance: It's so ironic that Monica is writing off Spencer's warnings of the post-merge Ta Keo people simply regrouping, because that would have been completely true - that IS what they were planning, based on Varner's interactions with Wigles. But look at where it is now: Varner and PG sacrificed Vytas to "light a fire" under Woo, Kelly, and Deitz. And now, Varner turned on PG and sent her home (for literally ZERO reason), before his own boot. So what's the likeliest possibility at this point? Factor in Terry quitting, what's left? Kelly joins back up with Woo...and tries to get Kelley Wentworth? Abi's obviously a LONG-lost cause since her betrayal of Varner pretty much confirmed the fact that her loyalty is ALWAYS up for grabs, and Spencer will NEVER rejoin with former Ta Keo people since they tried to get rid of him (and almost did). At most, I see Spencer realigning with Kelley Wentworth, and that ties back into...

Spencer/Ciera/Tasha's Alliance: Unlike Shane's alliance, this one seems to have been more evenly spread-out among the tribes. Again, we'd confirmed that Spencer, Ciera, and Tasha were DEFINITELY aligned, and the possible fourth/fifth members were Monica (according to Shane), and Vytas (according to Tasha). Of course, Vytas is long gone now, and I think the fact that Monica suddenly has a huge distrust of Spencer proves that there was a significant falling-out between them; especially considering what you claimed happened on Instagram (I think? Some social media site), where Tasha and Ciera unfriended Monica or something, in a pretty subtle but noticeable display of a possible falling-out? Still, you have Tasha and Ciera still in the game, both admittedly having shared the first tribe and now all three of them (Spencer included) spread out among three different tribes. If Spencer can survive to the merge (since I still think he's clearly on the bottom of Bayon), I can see him regrouping with Ciera (who pretty much has made no other friends/alliances this season) and Tasha for sure. Tasha might pull Savage in, since they're obviously a tight duo through Angkor. Subsequently, Spencer can maybe pull in Kelley Wentworth, and MAYBE Stephen? Stephen's also really confusing since he made it SO clear beforehand that he had a MASSIVE desire to work with Spencer, Kelley, Shirin, and PG in particular - and of course, only two of those are left. Yet after the swap, Stephen still rushed to Jeremy? IDK, maybe just to assure he's not still bottom of the totem pole. But post-merge, I could definitely see him jumping at an alliance with Spencer and Kelley. So Spencer, Ciera, Kelley, Stephen, Tasha, and Andrew? That definitely sounds solid, would fit in with the reasonable edits most of them are getting...and plus, that would account for THREE of the four supposed instances of contestants whose first, immediately post-Survivor pics depicted them as extremely skinny and malnourished (Spencer, Kelley, and supposedly Tasha; the fourth is Kimmi, who I could easily see getting along with these people).

Bayon/Jeremy's Alliance: Again, Jeremy had a REALLY solid alliance going with himself, Andrew, Joe, Keith, and Tasha. However, it seems that Andrew and Tasha, again, are now a tighter duo who seem more likely to answer to each other rather than Jeremy, and Joe is an obvious threat who - if he even makes it to the merge - will once again be the obvious target of everyone. Once that happens, I feel that Jeremy becomes the next obvious threat since Keith is obviously not good insurance policy, lol. Plus, Jeremy obviously made some enemies in people like Stephen, and even some of the former Bayon girls who may have felt alienated (Ciera, Monica, Kimmi, etc.). Plus, what exactly is his strategy with this new Bayon group? He seems to have formed a bond with Spencer and is willing to continue treating Stephen as a puppet (just as he was in Tocantins, lol), but then what about Kimmi and Monica? And how does Kelly Wigles fit into all this, with Spencer's warnings? It's quite clear that Jeremy does NOT have the strong, cohesive alliance he had before, since pretty much all of the President's men in this case have been scattered to the other tribes - Joe and Keith on one tribe, Tasha and Andrew on the other - which, again, can increase the likeliness of them forming their own factions rather than just running back to Jeremy post-merge.

So, my prediction: Based on likeliness of uniting multiple smaller, surprisingly unlikely factions into a pretty smart alliance with the right numbers and some solid challenge threats, I can actually see the Spencer/Ciera/Tasha alliance coming to power post-merge, though they will have a tough time taking down Jeremy and Joe, and they very well may face betrayal from someone within, like Monica or Kimmi. But nevertheless, I am STOKED for the merge.

Thoughts? 